SpaceX stock is poised for a significant test in late July or early August, as two critical events converge for the newly public company. A substantial portion of locked-up shares will become eligible for sale, coinciding with the release of its first quarterly earnings report to public investors. This period will mark the first real look at the company’s financial performance since its initial public offering (IPO) on June 11.
The rocket and satellite-internet company priced its IPO at $135 per share, raising $75 billion in what was the largest IPO ever. Shares initially surged, climbing past $200 after debuting on Nasdaq. However, the stock has since retreated to around $185, still above the offer price but below its peak, leaving some early buyers underwater.
The current volatility is partly attributed to a thin trading float. Only about 5% of SpaceX shares were made available in the IPO, with the remainder held by employees and early investors under lockup agreements. This limited supply contributes to sharp price swings.
SpaceX implemented a staggered lockup schedule, rather than a single expiration date. The first window for eligible holders to sell shares opens within days of the company’s initial earnings release. During this period, up to 20% of locked shares can be sold. An additional tranche will be released if the stock has traded at least 30% above the $135 offer price, which is approximately $175.50, in the lead-up to the report. The stock is currently meeting this threshold.
The full 180-day lockup for most shares will not lift until around December, and Elon Musk’s substantial stake remains restricted until next June. However, the upcoming release in late July or early August represents the largest near-term increase in share supply.
Public investors will also receive their first quarterly earnings report from SpaceX during this same window. The company has not yet set a specific date, but results for the second quarter of 2026 are anticipated in late July or early August. This report will provide the first detailed financial data beyond the IPO prospectus.
Prior to this report, the prospectus offered the only insight into SpaceX’s financial momentum. It indicated approximately $18.7 billion in revenue for 2025, representing about a one-third increase from the previous year. The company also reported a net loss of about $4.9 billion for 2025. Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite-internet service, was a primary revenue driver, contributing $11.4 billion in 2025.
The upcoming period will clarify how the market absorbs the increased share supply and reacts to the company’s financial disclosures. Investors will be watching for details on revenue growth, profitability trends, and the performance of key segments like Starlink and its rocket operations.
The convergence of these events means that the true market valuation and stability of SpaceX stock will be more clearly defined in the coming weeks. The company’s ability to manage investor expectations and demonstrate a clear path to profitability will be key factors to observe.