The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence has not significantly affected aggregate employment or wages in the United States, according to a European Central Bank (ECB) study released on Monday. While some workers may face displacement, the overall impact remains limited for now, dispelling initial concerns about widespread job losses and increased inequality.
Firms have invested heavily in AI technologies in recent years, prompting fears that human workers would be rapidly replaced. However, current data suggests these fears have not materialized on a large scale. The U.S. economy began adjusting to the AI boom years ago, with jobs in vulnerable sectors reallocated to other segments, gradually reshaping the labor market.
The ECB’s Economic Bulletin article noted that between 2019 and 2025, jobs with a high substitution risk grew by approximately 15 percentage points less than those with a low substitution risk, all else being equal. This indicates a shift in job growth patterns rather than an overall decline in employment.
Employment in roles highly susceptible to AI substitution, such as economists or graphic designers, saw an average decline of over 4% from 2019 to 2025. This contraction reflects a targeted impact on specific professions rather than a broad economic downturn.
Conversely, jobs with a low risk of AI substitution, including electricians and high school teachers, experienced a 13% increase in employment during the same period. This growth in less exposed sectors has helped balance the labor market shifts.
The study also revealed a change in the composition of the U.S. workforce. The share of low-risk jobs in total U.S. employment rose from 23% to 25%, while the share of high-risk jobs decreased from 35% to 33%. This rebalancing suggests an ongoing adaptation of the labor market to technological advancements.
Regarding income, the study found no significant impact on wage growth since 2019 due to AI substitution risk. The European Central Bank stated, “AI substitution risk has had no significant impact on wage growth since 2019.” However, the report acknowledges that income effects could become more pronounced over time as the labor market continues to adjust and AI tools become more generative.
The long-term effects of AI on the U.S. labor market remain an area of ongoing observation. While the initial impact on aggregate employment and wages has been minimal, the study leaves open the possibility of more significant changes as AI technology evolves and integrates further into economic processes.
Future developments in generative AI and continued labor market adjustments will determine the extent of income and employment shifts. Policymakers and businesses will need to monitor these trends to address potential challenges and opportunities arising from technological progress.