Surging artificial intelligence (AI)-related demand is fueling an Asian technology export boom, significantly boosting growth in economies including Malaysia. This trend is detailed in a new report from S&P Global Ratings, which projects strong export growth to continue through 2026, particularly for tech manufacturing hubs.
The report, titled “Economic Outlook Asia-Pacific Third Quarter 2026: AI-Exposed Markets To Outperform,” highlights that strong export growth has become a major economic driver for countries with high tech manufacturing output. Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam are experiencing particularly significant benefits, with Singapore, mainland China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Japan also seeing substantial impacts.
Tech shipments, including memory chips, are expected to maintain strong growth in 2026. A notable portion of this export expansion stems from price increases rather than volume. In April, overall export prices in dollar terms rose 31.6 percent year-on-year in South Korea and 17.4 percent in Taiwan, indicating large terms-of-trade gains even amidst rising energy import costs.
For most economies where tech manufacturing holds significant economic importance, the positive effects of the tech export boom are outweighing the unfavorable energy shock. This balance allows these nations to sustain economic momentum despite external pressures from energy markets.
Southeast Asian economies are experiencing a balanced outlook, characterized by robust electronics-related activity and generally steady domestic demand, alongside ongoing energy stress. The region benefits not only from the tech export boom but also from data center investments, which support construction and capital spending.
Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are particularly benefiting from these data center investments. This capital inflow complements the export growth, providing additional economic stimulus. However, S&P Global Ratings officials slightly lowered their overall forecast for the Southeast Asian region due to a significant downward revision for the Philippines, while forecasts for other countries remained stable compared to their March outlook.
At the broader Asia-Pacific level, S&P Global Ratings has maintained its baseline 2026 gross domestic product forecasts, excluding China, at 4.5 percent, unchanged from March. Growth for 2027 is projected at 4.4 percent. The region’s economic outlook is shaped by resilient global activity, persistent energy market stress, and the AI-driven tech export boom.
The continued expansion of AI-related demand suggests that economies heavily invested in tech manufacturing will likely see sustained benefits. The interplay between export prices and volumes, alongside energy costs, will remain a critical factor in determining the full extent of these gains.
Future developments to watch include how global energy prices evolve and whether the current trend of price-driven export growth continues or shifts towards volume expansion. The impact of ongoing data center investments across Southeast Asia will also be a key indicator of regional economic health.